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USDCHF Shows Ambiguous Trading Dynamics

2/28/2023 11:03 AM

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is recovering after a noticeable decline yesterday, when it failed to consolidate on local highs from December 7.

Moderate pressure on the dollar, also to several technical factors, was exerted by poor macroeconomic statistics: the volume of orders for durable goods in January corrected by –4.5% after gaining 5.1% last month, although analysts had expected a decline of 4.0 %. The figure excluding defense and aviation orders increased by 0.8% after falling by 0.3% a month earlier. The index of business activity in the industrial sector from the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas in February decreased from –8.4 points to –13.5 points, which coincided with experts' forecasts.

The focus of investors on Tuesday is the US statistics on business activity and consumer confidence in February. In Switzerland, data on the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be published: economists expect a correction of the indicator by –1.2% after rising 0.5% earlier, and in quarterly terms – an increase from 0.2% to 0.3%.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively growing: the price range is expanding from above, but not as fast as the “bullish” dynamics develop in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, having retreated from its highs, maintains a fairly strong downward direction, signaling that the US dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9400, 0.9427, 0.9478, 0.9550. | Support levels: 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9250, 0.9200.

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