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The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has Adjusted the Interest Rate

2/24/2023 11:53 AM

During the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair is actively recovering from yesterday's decline, when the asset opened with a gap down and failed to regain lost ground during the day. The instrument is currently trading at 18.8822.

The high volatility of trading in recent days was due to the publication of the minutes of the February meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which confirmed investors' expectations regarding a possible further tightening of monetary policy: in February, the regulator increased the interest rate by 25.0 basis points, and the same measures are expected at the March meeting. It is not yet known if any further steps will follow but the agency has once again signaled that the indicators will remain at high levels for a long time to come.

Investors are focusing on the decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which on Thursday cut its interest rate by 50.0 basis points to 8.5%, in line with analysts' forecasts and was dictated by an attempt to mitigate the effects of earthquakes that have killed more than 43.0K people. Authorities estimate losses at 50.0B dollars, and entrepreneurs at 84.0B dollars. The restoration of infrastructure, power lines and buildings alone will require 70.0B dollars. At the moment, a large-scale program has been launched for the population of areas affected by the disaster: for example, companies that have received severe or moderate damage to property will receive payments from the state to cover obligations to employees. Also, employers are prohibited from layoffs in the ten most affected cities in the country, which, according to the authorities, should somewhat reduce financial uncertainty for citizens. Experts note that the economic consequences of the disaster may eventually cost Turkey's budget 100.0B dollars, while the economic growth rate this year is likely to decrease by 1.0–2.0%.

Macroeconomic statistics from the United States, released on Thursday, reflected a decrease in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week of February 17 from 195.0K to 192.0K, with a forecast of growth to 200.0K. The number of repeated claims for the week of February 10 decreased from 1.691M to 1.654M, which also was better than market forecasts for an increase to 1.7M. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce adjusted the estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2022 from 2.9% to 2.7%, while analysts were counting on the preservation of previous indicators.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range practically does not change, not corresponding to the observed volatility in the market. The MACD indicator reversed upwards but still retains its sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic after a period of a long flat reversed upwards, signaling in favor of the development of upward dynamics in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 18.8818, 18.9128, 18.9500, 19.0000. | Support levels: 18.8500, 18.8281, 18.8000, 18.7500.

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