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USDCHF Quotes are Trying to Leave the Downward Channel

2/16/2023 2:28 PM

The USD/CHF pair is moving within the medium-term downward channel, having tested its upper limit of 0.9260 this week, above which it has not been able to break through yet. Currently, the US currency is receiving support from monetary factors, as investors are preparing to tighten the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the price's attempts to leave the current channel soon are likely to continue.

Recall that the publication of strong January data on the labor market and keeping inflation above the forecast level confirmed the insufficiency of measures taken by officials to cool the economy. Experts believe that the regulator will not stop the reduction of incentives until at least summer; even then, it will decide whether to fix or increase them. Of the short-term factors supporting the dollar, we can note the release of positive data on January retail sales: the indicator rose by 3.0% after a correction of –1.1%: households remain active, which can provide serious support to the gross domestic product (GDP).

Unlike most other European countries and the United States, where inflationary pressures are slowly easing, they are picking up again in Switzerland: in January, the annualized consumer price index rose from 2.8% to 3.3%, and the producer price index from 3 .2% to 3.3%. The negative momentum could push the Swiss National Bank to a more "hawkish" course and raise the rate by a step above 50.0 bps, which could negatively impact the franc's position.

The trading instrument rose above 0.9216 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [1/8]). However, to resume serious growth, the quotes will have to leave the downward channel and consolidate above 0.9277 (Murrey level [4/8]), and positive dynamics will be able to continue to 0.9400 (Murrey level [6/8]) and 0.9521 (Murrey level [8/8]). The key "bearish" level is 0.9155 (Murrey level [2/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of further decline to 0.9094 (Murrey level [1/8]) and 0.9033 (Murrey level [0/8]).

Technical indicators signal the readiness of a trend change: Bollinger bands have moved to a horizontal movement, Stochastic is pointing upwards, and the MACD histogram is decreasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.9277, 0.9400, 0.9521. | Support levels: 0.9155, 0.9094, 0.9033.

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