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WTI Crude Oil Consolidation Near 79 Dollars Per Barrel

2/1/2023 10:54 AM

During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil quotes show ambiguous dynamics, testing the level of 79.20 for a breakout.

The instrument slightly increased in value against the backdrop of consolidation short positions by investors yesterday, the US Federal Reserve meeting, from which experts expect the tightening of the monetary policy, which, in turn, may negatively affect the state of the national economy and reduce demand for hydrocarbons. More than 90.0% of analysts are confident that the interest rate will be adjusted by only 25.0 basis points to 4.75%, but they assume that the regulator will keep the "hawkish" rhetoric: the indicator may remain high for quite a long time. Also, there is a high probability of one more increase of 25.0 basis points during the March meeting of the department. These fears are leveled by the positive forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the strengthening of the Chinese economy: Chinese Manufacturing PMI in January recovered again, rising from 47.0 points to 50.1 points and entering the green zone.

Macroeconomic statistics from the US on oil stocks put moderate pressure on WTI Crude Oil quotes: a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed an increase in the index for the week of January 27 by 6.330M barrels compared to an increase of 3.378M barrels over the previous reporting period. Today, the focus of investors, also to the decision of the US Federal Reserve will be the final data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) on the oil reserves and petroleum products in the country. Analysts suggest that the value for the week of January 27 will be corrected by –1.0M barrels after rising 0.533M barrels earlier.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range remains practically unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current market activity level. The MACD indicator falls, maintaining a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, reversing at "20" into an ascending plane signals in favor of the development of corrective growth of the instrument in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 79.81, 81.00, 82.00, 82.62. | Support levels: 78.74, 78.00, 77.00, 76.00.

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