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USDCHF in Anticipation of New Movement Drivers

1/25/2023 11:44 AM

During the Asian session, USD/CHF is growing slightly, developing an unstable uptrend formed on Friday.

Yesterday, moderate support for the US currency was provided by January US data on business activity from S&P Global: Service PMI rose from 44.7 points to 46.6 points with a negative forecast of a decline to 44.5 points, Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 46.2 points to 46.8 points, which also was better than forecasts of 46.1 points, while Composite PMI – from 45.0 points to 46.6 points, ahead of experts' preliminary estimates of a decline to 44.7 points. However, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Manufacturing PMI sharply corrected from 1.0 points to –11.0 points, worse than market expectations of –4.0 points.

Investors are focused on the statistics from the United States on the dynamics of Q4 gross domestic product (GDP), which will appear on Thursday: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the recovery of the American economy from 3.2% to 2.8%, and then the national currency will once again be under pressure, and analysts' confidence that the US Federal Reserve will go for a further slowdown in interest rate growth will only increase.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately declining: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics but is not far from its highs, indicating that the US dollar may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9350, 0.9400. | Support levels: 0.9200, 0.9150, 0.9100, 0.9036.

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