The BTC/USD pair started the first week of the new year with a moderate attempt at growth and reached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands around 16800.00. Market activity remains subdued due to the loss of investor confidence in digital assets after the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.
Currently, experts are trying to predict the dynamics of "digital gold" in the coming year, but there is no consensus on this issue: according to preliminary estimates, the value of BTC can rise to 250,0K dollars per coin or fall to 10,0K. Nevertheless, most experts are inclined to believe that serious price jumps should not be expected, and the overall situation of the sector will remain rather negative. Pressure on it will continue to be exerted by the course of tightening monetary policy taken by the world's leading central banks, aiming to significantly reduce inflation, and the growth of activity of regulators seeking to limit the activities of crypto companies, thus ensuring greater protection of investors' capital. The main hopes for significant growth are associated with 2024, when a reversal of the policy of the US Fed is expected and the beginning of a significant reduction in interest rates, as well as another halving of BTC, which traditionally has a positive effect on the price of the first cryptocurrency.
As for the mid−term outlook, the BTC/USD pair is likely to continue trading within the sideways range of 17500.00−16250.00 (Murray levels [6/8]-[5/8]).
Now the price is testing the middle line of the Bollinger Bands 16800.00, when consolidated above which it will be able to rise to 17500.00 (Murray level [6/8]) and 19100.00 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). The key for the "bears" is the level of 16250.00 (Murray [5/8], the lower line of the Bollinger Bands), the breakdown of which will increase the prospects for the downward movement of the trading instrument to the area of 15700.00 (the area of November lows) and 15000.00 (Murray [4/8]).
Technical indicators do not give a single signal, illustrating the continuing uncertainty in the market: the Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards, and the Stochastic is reversing upwards, while the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 16800.00, 17500.00, 19100.00. | Support levels: 16250.00, 15700.00, 15000.00.