The euro continues the upward trend around 1.0653 against the backdrop of low volatility yesterday due to the New Year celebrations.
Yesterday, November data on borrowings in the EU countries were presented, which was poor: the volume of loans to enterprises grew by 8.4% instead of the expected 8.6%, and to the private sector – by 4.1% instead of 4.3%. Today, investors will pay attention to the dynamics of the Spanish consumer price index in December, and, according to analysts' forecasts, the index, harmonized with EU standards, may slow down from 6.7% to 6.0%.
In the meantime, according to a survey conducted by the business publication Financial Times, high inflation and the development of an energy crisis could be catalysts for unemployment and production cuts in the EU next year. According to analysts' preliminary estimates, the economy will correct by –0.01%, although experts from the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB) expected growth of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, gas quotes are rising on the back of a drop in raw material exports from Norway to 333.0M cubic meters from 337.0M cubic meters and a 13.0% (to 35.3 gigawatts) reduction in nuclear power generation in France to below the 10-year average.
The American currency is likely to end the year at 103.700 points in the USD Index, as analysts' hopes for the statistics on the national labor market, which could act as a driver of the upward movement, did not come true. According to the US Department of Labor report, initial jobless claims amounted to 225.0K, exceeding last week's figure of 216.0K and fully matching the forecasts of experts. Thus, the total number of claims amounted to 1.710M compared to 1.669M earlier, while the average number of applications for four weeks consolidated around 221.0K.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair show corrective growth and are confidently holding near the resistance line of the ascending corridor.
Technical indicators point to continued growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are much higher than the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new corrective bars, holding in the buying zone.
Support levels: 1.0574, 1.0396. | Resistance levels: 1.0691, 1.0849.