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USDCAD is Developing "Bearish" Momentum

12/22/2022 10:50 AM

The US currency shows a moderate decrease, developing the "bearish" momentum formed at the beginning of this week, as well as remaining under pressure from a general improvement in risk sentiment in the market and a slowdown in the pace of interest rate adjustments from the world's central banks. In particular, it is projected that the US Federal Reserve will increase the value by only 25 basis points at the beginning of next year, after which it may take a wait-and-see attitude. The market is focused on US statistics on the dynamics of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter: analysts are confident that the previous estimate will remain unchanged and the economy will show growth of 2.9%. At the end of the week, there will be data on Durable Goods Orders for November.

The Canadian dollar, in turn, received moderate support from macroeconomic statistics released the day before. In November, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1% after rising by 0.7% in the previous month, while analysts expected zero dynamics, and in annual terms, the indicator corrected from 6.9% to 6.8% , which also turned out to be higher than market forecasts by 0.1%. Core CPI, calculated by the Bank of Canada, reached 5.8%, while analysts had expected a possible acceleration to 6.4%.

In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing from below, pointing to the appearance of multidirectional dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is falling, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline and is currently rapidly approaching its lows, indicating the risks of oversold US dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700, 1.3750. | Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3500, 1.3450, 1.3400.

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