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Economic Activity Slows Down in New Zealand

12/20/2022 1:20 PM

Against the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar, the NZD/USD pair is correcting at 0.6324.

In recent weeks, macroeconomic data from New Zealand suggest a significant slowdown in economic activity, with Westpac's Q4 domestic consumer sentiment index at 75.6 points, down from Q3 87.6. Business confidence from Australia and New Zealand banking group ANZ fell in December to –70.2 points from –57.1 points a month earlier, which was the lowest on record since 1998, while the business activity indicator from the National Bank of New Zealand (NBNZ) accelerated the fall to –25.6% from –13.7% before.

The quotes of the US dollar continue to fall slowly, having overcome 104.000 in the USD Index yesterday. The main reason for the negative dynamics remains the market reaction to the continued implementation of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which brings very poor results: in less than six months, the interest rate increased from 0.75% to the current 4.25–4.50%, and inflation over this the same period decreased from 9.1% to 7.1%. Thus, it is obvious that the current tightening of the monetary policy exceeds the rate of decline in price growth, and if the "hawkish" rate continues, the regulator will have to raise the interest rate to 7.00–8.00%, which will destroy the US economy.

The trading instrument is moving within a corrective uptrend with a local decline.

Technical indicators maintain a buy signal, starting to work out a local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6390, 0.6510. | Support levels: 0.6260, 0.6130.

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