The USD/CAD pair has broken the resistance level of 1.3670 and is preparing to renew the November high at 1.3800 against the downward correction in oil quotes, which, after the breakdown of 76.50, went to a month's low of 70.15. Since oil is Canada's main export commodity, the national currency reacts negatively to a reduction in the country's income from its sale.
The second reason for the growth of quotations is the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve last week by 0.50% to 4.50%. At a press conference following the announcement of the regulator's decision, its chief executive, Jerome Powell, confirmed that the “hawkish” rhetoric remained and assured investors of the need to increase the rate further.
On Wednesday at 15:30 (GMT+2), market participants expect the publication of statistics on inflation in Canada for November, on which the national regulator will base its monetary policy: it is predicted that the figure will fall by 0.1%. On Friday, data on the gross domestic product (GDP) for October will be released, which, according to experts, will increase by 0.1%, and if the actual value exceeds the forecast, then we can expect the strengthening of the Canadian currency. Otherwise, a long-term uptrend in the USD/CAD pair will continue with the target at 1.3800.
This week, market participants are trying to change the long-term trend to an uptrend, for which the price needs to consolidate above 1.3670, after which the target will be the November high at 1.3800. Otherwise, the quotes are expected to fall to 1.3475.
The medium-term trend is up. The price is consolidating below the target zone 2 (1.3751–1.3227), and if it is held, the asset will start a correction to the area of the key trend support 1.3450–1.3427, and in case of the breakout of the range, the medium-term trend is likely to continue with the target at zone 3 (1.4017–1.3992).
Resistance levels: 1.3670, 1.3800, 1.3960. | Support levels: 1.3475, 1.3250.