After the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics last week, the GBP/USD pair continues its upward trend, moving towards 1.2000.
Thus, Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.2 points, which exceeded the forecast of 45.7 points, the Composite PMI – up to 48.3 points, which is more than expected at 47.2 points, and Service PMI reached 48.8 points, higher than preliminary estimates of 48.0 points, which signals the recovery of the UK economy in the fourth quarter. Also, British investors are analyzing part of the data received yesterday: consumer lending in October increased from 0.608B pounds to 0.769B pounds, worse than analysts' forecasts, which expected growth to 0.900B pounds, and the number of approved mortgage applications showed a steady decline from 65.967K to 58.977K, with a forecast of a decrease to 60.200K.
American investors have taken a break in dollar purchases due to a change in the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve. Today at 20:30 (GMT+2), the last speech of the head of the department, Jerome Powell, is expected before the decision on the interest rate on December 14. If market participants find confirmation of the caution in matters of further tightening of monetary policy, described in the latest minutes of the regulator, then the dollar is likely to continue its weakening course. If the official hints that an increase in the interest rate by 0.75% at the next meeting is not ruled out, then the US currency may strengthen again. Investors also expect the publication of Nonfarm Payroll data for November on Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), where current forecasts suggest a slowdown in dynamics from 239.0K to 200.0K, and if the actual value exceeds the preliminary estimates, then the GBP/USD pair may drop to the 1.1640 area. Otherwise, the uptrend will continue with the target at 1.2260 and above.
The long-term trend is upward. After the breakout of 1.1950, the target for purchases is 1.2260, the overcoming of which will open the way for the growth of quotations to the area of 1.2655. The key support for the trend is at 1.1640, and its breakdown will allow sellers to reduce the rate of the trading instrument to 1.1170.
The medium-term trend is upward. Last week, the asset reached the target zone 5 (1.2111–1.2075), failed to break it, and entered a correction with the target at the key trend support 1.1705–1.1660, upon reaching which new purchases can be considered with the target at last week's high at 1.2150.
Resistance levels: 1.2260, 1.2655. | Support levels: 1.1940, 1.1770, 1.1640.