During the Asian session, the USD/TRY pair is growing and testing 18.6325 for a breakout, winning back a slight negative gap at the opening of trading in anticipation of new market drivers.
Today, the report by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector will be published, where analysts expect a decrease in the value from 239.0K to 200.0K, as well as the final data on the dynamics of the Q3 US gross domestic product (GDP), where a correction of the indicator from 2.6% to 2.7% is predicted, which may have a positive impact on the US dollar. Closer to the end of the daytime session, the focus of investors' attention will shift to the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, and the publication of the monthly economic review from the regulator, the Beige Book, containing a description of the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, real estate market, and other current indicators.
Lira remains under pressure from the uncertain economic situation that is developing within the country. On Thursday, the Central Bank of Turkey, under the influence of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, lowered the interest rate by 1.5%, bringing it to 9.0%. However, according to official data from the Turkish Institute of Statistics (TürkStat), inflation accelerated and in July reached a peak since June 1998 at 85.5%, while consumer prices in October added 3.54% from the previous month. Experts believe that against the backdrop of poor macroeconomic indicators and the rhetoric of the regulator, a collapse in demand with the economy plunging into a protracted recession is almost inevitable. In the meantime, the lira's depreciation is stimulating exports: this year alone, the national currency has lost a third of its value in the USD/TRY pair.
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing slightly: the price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in recent weeks. MACD grows, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). After a moderate increase last week, Stochastic reversed into a downward plane, reacting to the strengthening of the "bearish" sentiment at the trading on Tuesday.
It is better to wait for clearer signals from technical indicators to open new positions.
Resistance levels: 18.6815, 18.7500, 18.8500, 18.9000. | Support levels: 18.6000, 18.5000, 18.3737, 18.3000.