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USDCHF Remains Under Pressure

11/15/2022 11:31 AM

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair shows ambiguous dynamics, holding near 0.9440.

Despite attempts at corrective growth at the beginning of the new week, the US currency remains under pressure due to the prospects for a slowdown in tightening the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Inflation statistics confirmed the likelihood of a change in the current rate, and in December, according to experts, the regulator will decide to raise the interest rate by only 50.0 basis points and then by 25.0 basis points. Several "hawks" of the department urge to look not at the rate of increase in the indicator but the final plans for it for the current and next years. In particular, such a statement was made at the beginning of the week by the representative of the US Federal Reserve, Christopher Waller, who noted that the interest rate is likely to rise for a long time.

Meanwhile, the franc is also reacting to evidence of a slowdown in inflation in Switzerland: the producer and import price index showed zero dynamics in October after rising by 0.2% last month, and the index slowed down from 5.4% to 4.9%. The next block of key macroeconomic statistics will appear only towards the end of the week: on Thursday, statistics on imports and exports for October will be released, as well as a speech by Andrea Maechler, a member of the board of the Swiss National Bank, and on Friday, data on the dynamics of industrial production for the third quarter of the current of the year.

In its latest published report, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) examines the increased risks that the national financial sector may face soon: monetary tightening, changes in lending conditions, the likelihood of cyber-attacks, fraudulent activities using criminal capital, and others. Also, the regulator considers decentralized financial applications popular among investors in blockchain infrastructures with open access, where users can lose their assets, for example, due to market volatility, technical software errors, hacking, or fraud. However, experts believe systemic risks in this direction are still low due to limited audience coverage.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining: the price range is expanding but not as fast as the "bearish" activity develops. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its lows, remains horizontal, signaling the risks of the US dollar being oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9478, 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.9650. | Support levels: 0.9400, 0.9350, 0.9300, 0.9200.

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