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US Export Growth Supports Oil Prices

10/28/2022 1:16 PM

The price of North American WTI Crude Oil is correcting upwards, trading at 87.92.

Based on data from the United States, an upward trend continues in the hydrocarbon market, indicating a significant increase in the volume of oil exports, which reached 11.4M barrels per day, which exceeds the value in the first weeks of October by about 2.0M barrels per day. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will soon assess whether the country needs to impose a ban on crude exports to speed up the filling of strategic reserves, which have been more than halved amid President Joe Biden's decision to release an additional 10.0M barrels to the market per day in response to OPEC+ production cut by 2.0M barrels per day.

Additional local support for quotes was also provided by yesterday's preliminary data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States: investors feared that the country's economy would remain in a technical recession but after two quarters of decline, the figure rose by 2.6%, exceeding the forecasts of analysts who had expected growth by 2.4%. Although the actual data may differ from the preliminary data, the positive dynamics are noticeable and confirmed by the exports' growth. Tomorrow's data on investment demand for contracts from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be important. After the fall in demand last week to 251.5K likely contracts from 259.1K earlier this week, a positive trend will support the oil quotes.


On the daily chart, the trading instrument is moving above the resistance line of the global downward channel, gradually moving away from it.

Technical indicators confirm a high probability of continuation of corrective growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to move away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new rising bars, rising in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 90.00, 96.60. | Support levels: 85.40, 81.40.

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