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EURUSD Correction at the Beginning of a New Trading Week

10/24/2022 10:59 AM

The EUR/USD pair shows a moderate decline, retreating from its local highs from October 6 and correcting after a noticeable increase last Friday. The reason for the emergence of the uptrend was the fears of the market regarding the prospects for the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts note that an increasing number of board members of the American regulator speak about the risks for the national economy against the backdrop of a sharp increase in the cost of borrowing. However, current forecasts suggest that during the November 1-2 meeting, the Fed will decide to raise the interest rate by another 75 basis points, after which the rate of adjustment will slow down. On Thursday, the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be held: it is expected that the interest rate will also be increased by 75 basis points to 2.0%, and the deposit rate will increase from 0.75% to 1.5%.

Moderate pressure on the position of the euro is exerted by forecasts for data from Europe on the level of business activity, which will be released today at 10:00 (GMT+2). In particular, analysts expect that the Manufacturing PMI of the eurozone from S&P Global in October will decrease from 48.4 points to 48.0 points, the Services PMI will decrease from 48.8 points to 48.2 points, and the Composite PMI may decline from 48.1 points to 47.6 points.

Last Thursday, at the summit of EU leaders, the energy problems of the region were discussed; in particular, the possibility of imposing a ceiling on prices for gas supplied to the eurozone and options for implementing this decision, including joint purchases of "blue fuel" were in question. As a result, the parties failed to reach an agreement, since Germany blocked this decision, noting the increasing risks of producers selling resources to other consumers, while European households may be left without sufficient fuel in the coming winter.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, after a short decline, reverses upwards again, settling near its highs. As before, the indicator readings point to the risks of the euro being overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9900, 0.9950, 1.0000, 1.0050. | Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9800, 0.9750, 0.9666.

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