The GBP/USD pair shows ambiguous trading dynamics during the morning session on September 12, consolidating near 1.1600. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, preferring to wait for the publication of macroeconomic statistics from the UK.
July's gross domestic product (GDP) data is expected to be released today, and analysts' forecasts suggest that the British economy will be able to show growth of 0.5% after declining by 0.6% in June. Also, during the day, traders will pay attention to statistics on the dynamics of industrial production, as well as preliminary estimates of inflation and August GDP from NIESR. Tomorrow, a full report on the labor market for July-August will be published, and on Wednesday, statistics on inflation will be released, which is a key parameter for the Bank of England, which is also set to fight against high consumer prices, despite the threat of a recession. The August indicator may reach another record high of 10.2% YoY.
Last week, Prime Minister Liz Truss announced new economic measures to support the population in the face of the energy crisis. In particular, about 90.0B pounds will be directed to social assistance for households (each family will be paid 400 pounds to compensate for electricity and gas tariffs, which have been steadily rising recently). Also, the new government will impose a limit on accounts of 2.5K pounds a year, which, in turn, will be a catalyst for slowing inflation by 5.0 percentage points, as well as reducing budget spending on social payments and debt servicing. According to analysts' calculations, without the implementation of this initiative, the bill by the beginning of next year would have increased by up to 3.5K pounds a year, and if energy prices continued to rise, by the spring, it would have reached 5.0K pounds, forcing British families to give about 15% their income from heating and electricity.
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands show a reversal in the horizontal plane: the price range is narrowing from above, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics in the short term. MACD is growing, maintaining a relatively strong buy signal and above the signal line. Stochastic also shows active growth, close to its highs and indicating that the pound may become overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.1647, 1.1700, 1.1759, 1.1800. | Support levels: 1.1600, 1.1531, 1.1442, 1.1380.