The US dollar is updating local lows from August 26 during morning trading, continuing the active downward rally that began last Wednesday. Demand for risky assets began to increase at the end of the week against the backdrop of some temporary stabilization in energy markets and the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. In addition, the latest macroeconomic projections for the growth rate of the euro area's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) suggest that the economy will be able to avoid a recession next year.
The statistics released the day before from the USA turned out to be ambiguous. Some support for the dollar was provided by data on the dynamics of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 2: their number again decreased from 228.0 thousand to 222.0 thousand, which turned out to be better than forecasts of growth to 240.0 thousand. At the same time, the dynamics of Consumer Credit in the country in July sharply slowed down from 40.15 billion dollars to 23.81 billion dollars, while analysts expected a decline to 33.0 billion dollars.
In the meantime, inflation continues to weigh on household purchasing power amid record increases in electricity and fuel tariffs, as well as higher health and welfare spending. At the end of August, the Swiss authorities launched an information campaign about the need to save resources. In particular, due to the predicted shortage, residents of the country are invited to reduce the heating temperature in winter, use lighting to a minimum and save gas when cooking. Swiss electricity suppliers have already announced imminent and significant tariff increases. In particular, in Sion and Sierre prices will rise immediately by 64%, in Geneva — by 22%, and in Lausanne — by 26%.
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost constant, remaining rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, but is currently located in close proximity to its lows, indicating the risks of dollar oversold in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9762, 0.9807, 0.9868. | Support levels: 0.9639, 0.9594, 0.9520, 0.9469.