Over the past ten days, the "bears" have been making unsuccessful attempts to consolidate below the 0.9950 level in anticipation of the next US Fed interest rate meeting and the subsequent expected strengthening of the dollar.
The economic problems of the eurozone are exacerbated by the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and disruptions in the supply of energy resources from Russia, as a result of which the inflation rate is increasing, reaching 9.1% in annual terms. Analysts also recorded a decrease in the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector to 49.6 points with a forecast of 49.7 points, while the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6.6%, which is quite high compared to the USA, where it is 3.5%.
After reaching the level of 3.5K dollars per 1.0K cubic meters, the price of gas immediately dropped by 30.0%, but is still at high levels in the region of 2.4K dollars, which in the conditions of the upcoming heating season becomes a powerful driver for accelerating consumer inflation. Given the difficult economic situation, the euro is likely to decline in the long term.
The publication of changes in the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector for August is scheduled for today. Analysts predict a decrease in the value from 471K to 300.0K, and if the actual data turn out to be equal or exceed preliminary estimates, then a new growth impulse can be expected for the US currency.
The euro is correcting from the 0.9950 level as part of a long-term downtrend with a target at 1.0105, after reaching which it is worth considering new short positions with a target at the August low of 0.9900.
The mid-term trend in the EUR/USD pair is downward. After reaching the target zone of 0.9944–0.9923 last week, the quotes continue their corrective movement with a possible target at 1.0133–1.0111.
Resistance levels: 1.0105, 1.0283, 1.0350. | Support levels: 0.9950, 0.9800, 0.9620.