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USDJPY Market Update

8/31/2022 1:50 PM

On the eve of the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve, within which another increase in interest rates is predicted, the USD/JPY pair is strengthening and is approaching the June high at 139.20.

Today, macroeconomic data that came out in Japan supported the quotes of the national currency. Industrial Production in July was 1.0%, exceeding the negative forecast of analysts at the level of -0.5%, while the volume of Retail Sales in annual terms for the same period was at the level of 2.4% against preliminary estimates of 1.9%. Against this background, the USD/JPY pair fell to 138.30; however, the long-term trend remains upward.

Also today, Bank of Japan's board member Junko Nakagawa made a speech, based on whose statements it can be concluded that the regulator is still committed to maintaining the financial stimulus program to combat the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the official, the regulator will be cautious in decisions on monetary policy, and its main task is not to interfere with the actively recovering economy.

Further dynamics of USD/JPY will depend on macroeconomic statistics from the US coming this week. Market participants are waiting for the publication of data on Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Analysts suggest that the figure will add 300.0 thousand new jobs. If the actual value turns out to be close to the forecast or exceeds it, then the US dollar is waiting for further strengthening, and the USD/JPY pair is likely to renew the June high around 139.20.

The long-term trend is upward. Yesterday, the instrument came as close as possible to the level of 139.20, in case of a breakout of which, the growth will continue with the targets of 141.00 and 142.50, and if it is held, a correction to the area of ​​136.00-135.30 will take place.

As part of the medium-term uptrend, the pair reached the target zone 2 (138.32-138.75). The "bulls" need to consolidate above this area, and then the next target of the upward movement will be the target zone 3 (143.11-142.67). The key trend support is shifting to the levels of 134.94-134.54. If it is tested as part of a correction, traders should consider new long positions in the asset.

Resistance levels: 139.20, 141.00, 142.55. | Support levels: 136.00, 135.30, 132.20.

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