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AUDUSD Market Update

8/29/2022 1:50 PM

The AUD/USD pair is developing unstable dynamics, falling to the 0.6842 area at the opening of trading, despite the positive macroeconomic background.

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an increase in retail sales index in monthly terms by 1.3% compared to 0.2% last month and experts' forecasts of 0.3%, while the dynamics in annual terms consolidated around 16.5%. Department store sales increased the most, adding 3.8% or 67.7M dollars, while analysts estimate that sales in clothing grew by 3.3%, food by 1.2%, and cafes and restaurants — by 1.8%. The only segment that showed negative dynamics was the sale of household goods, which decreased by 1.1% or 68.8M dollars. Building permit statistics are expected to be published tomorrow, and analysts suggest that the figure will fall by another 2.0% according to the global trend.

Meanwhile, the US dollar set a new record, consolidating yesterday at 109.300 points in the USD Index against the backdrop of the market's reaction to the statements of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to the official, unprecedented inflation remains the main problem for the national economy, and although it decreased in the last reporting period from 9.1% to 8.5%, the agency will continue to raise the interest rate to restore price stability.

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting, completing the formation of the head and shoulders reversal pattern. Technical indicators are preparing for a new reversal and have given a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6927, 0.7050. | Support levels: 0.6806, 0.6681.

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