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German Macroeconomic Data Supported Euro Quotes

8/25/2022 4:11 PM

This week, the EUR/USD pair has ambiguous dynamics: at first the price dropped to the area of 0.9900, but is currently regaining lost positions.

The euro is supported by positive data on Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) in Q2 2022, which turned out to be better than market expectations: on a quarterly basis, the German economy grew by 0.1%, which is less than the increase in Q1 (0.2%), but better than experts' forecasts (0.0%), and on an annual basis, the growth was 1.8%, instead of the 1.5% expected. According to experts, good indicators have been achieved thanks to serious government spending.

Statistics on the German business climate index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO) are expected to be released today, which may turn out to be negative. It is likely that the business activity index will decrease from 88.6 points to 86.8 points, and the index of assessment of the current economic situation – from 97.7 points to 96.0 points. The implementation of these forecasts may put the euro under pressure again. In addition, investors will be watching the start of the two-day symposium in Jackson Hole and the publication of preliminary data on US GDP in Q2. The US economy is expected to contract by 0.8% on a quarterly basis, which is slightly better than the previous indicator of -0.9%. Also in his speech, Jerome Powell is likely to confirm the regulator's determination to continue raising interest rates until inflation begins to decline significantly to the target level of 2.0%.


The price is testing the 1.0009 mark (Murray [2/8]), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to the level of 1.0131 (Murray [3/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). Nevertheless, the downward reversal of the Bollinger Bands and the increase in the MACD histogram in the positive zone confirms the continuation of the downward trend. The key for the "bears" is the level of 0.9887 (Murray [1/8]), with a breakdown of which the decline can continue to the levels of 0.9765 (Murray [0/8]), 0.9643 (Murray [-1/8]).

Resistance levels: 1.0009, 1.0131. | Support levels: 0.9887, 0.9765, 0.9643.



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