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AUDUSD Market Update

8/16/2022 2:16 PM

After the publication of the minutes of the meeting on the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the AUD/USD pair fell to 0.6990 and is preparing to continue the downward trend.

In the document, officials adjusted their forecasts for the development of the global economy downward: in their opinion, this year, it will decline to 3.25%, while the expected growth in 2023 remained unchanged at 3.75%. The regulator notes that the peak of inflation will be recorded in the last months of 2022, and by the end of 2024, the indicator will again return to the upper limit of the target range of 2–3%. The Bank's board members agreed that, given the strong growth in the consumer price index, a resilient economy, and a tight labor market, a further process of normalizing monetary conditions by raising interest rates is required.

The market reacted negatively to the rhetoric of the financial authorities. However, during the European session, there was an upward correction in the quotes of the AUD/USD pair. The current trend will likely continue in the medium term, as the US economy shows a recovery in consumer sentiment. Investors are looking forward to the US Federal Reserve meeting on September 21, at which, according to forecasts, the agency will increase the interest rate by 50.0 basis points, and until then, the dollar will continue to add to the value actively.

The long-term trend remains downwards. After the trading instrument failed to break the resistance level of 0.7130, it continued to decline and tested support at 0.7016, after which the fall will continue with the target at 0.6889.

The medium-term trend is upwards. Last week, the "bulls" reached the target zone 2 (0.7101–0.7081), and now the asset's quotes have moved into a correction to test the key trend support 0.6936–0.6916, from where it will be possible to consider new long positions with the target at last week's high of 0.7135.

Resistance levels: 0.7130, 0.7275. | Support levels: 0.7016, 0.6889.

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