The US dollar is flat against the Turkish lira trading just below key resistance at 18.0000. Activity on the market remains quite low, as market participants expect today's publication of key macroeconomic statistics on the dynamics of consumer inflation in the US in July. Analysts' current forecasts suggest a marked decline in the annual rate from the June peak of 9.1% to 8.7%, while the monthly value may correct from 1.3% to 0.2%. If market expectations come true, this will mean that the actions of the US Federal Reserve, aimed at a sharp tightening of monetary conditions, are fully justified, but it is still difficult to assess what the next steps of the regulator will be.
In turn, the Turkish lira is moderately supported by news about a possible transition to national currencies in doing business with the Russian Federation. As part of a joint meeting of the leaders of Turkey and Russia, held last Saturday in Sochi, the parties agreed to increase the volume of trade (mutual trade is planned to be increased to 100.0 billion dollars), as well as the transition to mutual settlements in rubles and lira. A decision was also made on cooperation in the transport sector, industry, agriculture, tourism and construction. In addition, an agreement was reached on payments for Russian gas in rubles. According to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this could bring financial benefits to both sides, especially given that the flow of Russian tourists to Turkey has traditionally remained at a high level. At the moment, five Turkish banks are working on the introduction of the Russian payment system Mir, and Erdogan believes that such measures will be able to attract not only tourists, but also businessmen and investors to the country.
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horisontally: the price range is slightly expanded, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, maintains an active upward position and is currently near its highs, indicating the risks of the US dollar being overbought in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 18.0264, 18.1500, 18.3000. | Support levels: 17.8550, 17.7500, 17.6000, 17.3454.