Solid News

Canadian Unemployment Forecast to Rise

8/4/2022 1:32 PM

Yesterday, Friday's publication of the national employment data, the Canadian currency slightly lost its position against the US dollar, trading at 1.2843.

Analysts predict the first increase since May 2021 in the average unemployment rate from 4.9% to 5.0% in July, which may be caused by macroeconomic statistics: for example, business activity in the manufacturing sector in July fell to 52.5 points from 54.6 points a month earlier, and this is the fastest rate of decline since February 2021. Also, today will be published June data on building permits issued, the number of which may decrease by 1.5% after May's growth of 2.3%.

The US dollar is holding above 106.000 in the USD Index ahead of today's publication of unemployment data: Initial Jobless Claims may slightly increase to 259.0K from 256.0K, and against the background of poor last week's results, even such a slight increase will be perceived positively. Experts also note the negative forecasts regarding Friday's report on employment in the non-agricultural sector, where it is possible to reduce the number of jobs to 250.0K from 372.0K a month earlier.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2600–1.3200, trading in the middle of the range. Indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range began to narrow again, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2900, 1.3041. | Support levels: 1.2785, 1.2643.

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