The USD/JPY pair moved to growth as a result of escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and China against the background of the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Taiwan. Now the trading instrument is around 133.16.
Despite serious threats from the PRC, no one interfered with the landing of the official’s plane, but her arrival in the country caused sharp condemnation from the Chinese authorities, who announced the start of large-scale military exercises around the island in response. Pelosi visited Parliament and expressed hope for increased political and economic cooperation with Taipei. In turn, official Beijing reacted by imposing trade sanctions against Taiwan, which is especially dangerous given the current crisis: in particular, the import of citrus fruits and two types of fish products, as well as the supply of sand, will be stopped. In the face of political tension, investors traditionally avoid risky assets and prefer to buy the US dollar and gold.
The USD/JPY pair rebounded from the key long-term uptrend support at 131.40, and the likely upward target is now the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (134.87) superimposed on July downside momentum. If it is held, the negative dynamics will continue in August, but in case of the breakout, buyers will target 137.18.
The medium-term trend reversed downwards last week, and as a result of the fall, the target zone 2 (131.33–130.95) was reached, from where an upward correction is now developing, the target of which is to test the key trend resistance 134.64–134.24, after which new short positions can be considered with the target at the low of the current week.
Resistance levels: 134.87, 137.18. | Support levels: 131.40, 126.49.