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The EUR/USD pair is in a corrective trend, trading around 1.0178. However, macroeconomic statistics were negative, which did not allow the trading instrument to continue the uptrend.

The German economy is rapidly plunging into a crisis, and the retail sales volume, which fell into negative territory in June, amounting to –1.6% instead of 1.2% in May, confirms this trend. The indicator has already lost 8.8% YoY, an absolute anti-record in the entire history of observations. Statistics for the euro area show a negative trend: July Manufacturing PMI amounted to 49.8 points, which is lower than 52.1 points in the last month, comparable to the lows of spring 2020.

After almost a week of decline, the US dollar is trying to change the trend and today is correcting upwards, reaching 106.000 in the USD Index, but there are few prospects for more significant growth. Thus, according to the June JOLTS report, the number of open vacancies in the US labor market fell to 10.698M from 11.303M a month earlier, which was not expected even by analysts who assumed that the value would drop to only 11.000M vacancies. Vehicle sales amounted to 13.35M, which is lower than analysts' forecast of 13.40M but exceeds the 13.00M sold in the previous period.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, heading towards the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a weak sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are confidently approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars.

Resistance levels: 1.0262, 1.0410. | Support levels: 1.0115, 0.9951.