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USDCHF Market Update

8/2/2022 1:21 PM

Due to the depreciation of the American currency, the USD/CHF pair is trading within a corrective trend, around 0.9520.

The dynamics of the franc are rather negative since there are still no factors for its growth, and investors perceive the published macroeconomic statistics as neutral: the index of economic expectations published monthly by the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim (ZEW) reached –57.2 in July, which was better than the absolute June anti-record of –72.7 points but it is still lower than the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The Zurich Polytechnic Federal Institute (KOF) Switzerland's index of leading economic indicators has been declining for fifteen consecutive months, and in July, the indicator was 90.1 points, falling from 95.2 points in June. Given that it is a leading indicator of the gross domestic product (GDP) trend, it can be assumed that the growth of the Swiss economy will continue to slow down in the second quarter.

The US currency continues its smooth decline, trading above 105.000 in the USD Index, as investor confidence in the dollar is falling. Yesterday's Manufacturing PMI exacerbated the situation: the core indicator for July amounted to 52.2 points, below 52.7 points in June, and the same indicator from the ISM Institute for Supply Management reached 52.8 points, also below 53.0 points for the last month.

On the weekly chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the possible Head and shoulders pattern, preparing to continue a local decline. Technical indicators have completely reversed and gave a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the sell zone, continuing to form down bars.

Resistance levels: 0.9540, 0.9700. | Support levels: 0.9462, 0.9304.

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