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EURUSD, Market Update

7/7/2022 1:52 PM

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is actively declining ahead of today's publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on monetary policy, trading in the 1.0201 area. Although the goals of the regulator are long-awaited and known, investors hope to hear new signals from officials for making long-term decisions on opening trade deals.

As for yesterday's macroeconomic data, the volume of retail sales in the euro area in May increased by 0.2%, which fell short of analysts' expectations, which assumed growth of 0.4%. Thus, the rate was 0.2% YoY, which is much lower than the 4.0% shown in April and highlights the decline in the population's purchasing power.

Meanwhile, the quotes of the American currency yesterday renewed another historical maximum of around 107.000 points in the USD Index. This growth was supported by an unexpectedly positive JOLTS report on open vacancies in the labor market in May, which amounted to 11.254M instead of the 11.000M expected by analysts. Also, traders are seriously counting on the US Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting by 75 basis points, which was reflected in yesterday's report of the Committee on open markets, published at the end of the June meeting. According to the statements of representatives of the department, the main focus of the authorities at the moment is directed to the rapid pace of inflation, which could be reduced by an interest rate adjustment, even though this may harm economic growth in the short term.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, slowly approaching the parity level. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another downwards bar in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0350, 1.0620.

Support levels: 1.0160, 1.0000.

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